From our Vietnam economy series. CPI figures are from the National Statistics Office release of 3 November 2026; policy details from the government news portal (baochinhphu.vn), 19 October 2026.
What is Vietnam's inflation rate in October 2026?
5.09% year on year. Prices rose 0.20% from September, a much slower monthly pace than September's 0.62%, but the annual rate stayed above 5%. Compared with December 2025 prices are up 4.41%, and the January to October average is 4.57%.
| Measure | October 2026 | September 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| CPI, month on month | +0.20% | +0.62% |
| CPI, year on year | +5.09% | +5.08% |
| CPI vs December 2025 | +4.41% | n/a |
| Average CPI, year to date | 4.57% | 4.52% |
| Core inflation, year to date | 4.24% | 4.26% |
Vietnam's official target is on the average CPI for the year, not the year-on-year rate in December. That is why 4.57% is the number to compare with the 4.5% goal.
What is pushing prices up?
Three groups do most of it. Food and catering added 1.65 points to ten-month inflation, housing, utilities and building materials 1.51 points, and transport 0.7 points, with fuel 13.09% dearer than a year earlier.
| Group (Jan–Oct 2026, y/y) | Price change | Points added to CPI |
|---|---|---|
| Food and catering services | +4.61% | 1.65 |
| Housing, electricity, water, fuel, building materials | +6.66% | 1.51 |
| Transport | +6.98% | 0.70 |
| · of which fuel | +13.09% | n/a |
October itself was a fuel month: transport prices rose 2.66% in a single month and petrol 6.86%, following world energy prices. Food actually fell 0.24%, with pork down 2.33%, which is why the monthly number was gentle. Core inflation, which strips out food, energy and administered prices, is lower at 4.24%: the pressure is real but concentrated rather than everywhere.
Why is the State Bank cutting rates with inflation above 5%?
Because the government's first priority is double-digit growth, and credit is the main fuel. Loans grew 11.44% in 2026 to mid-October while deposits grew 11.22%, so banks were bidding up deposit rates to fund lending. The State Bank stepped in to stop that rate race.
At the 19 October meeting, Governor Pham Duc An asked banks to:
- cut published deposit rates by at least 0.5 points a year for terms of six months and longer;
- cut lending rates by 1.5 to 2 points a year, aimed at production, business and priority sectors;
- "absolutely not" compete by raising deposit rates, with inspections promised for banks that do.
Large state banks moved quickly: Vietcombank committed to at least 2 points off lending rates to year-end, Agribank up to 2 points, and BIDV launched loans from 6% a year. The refinancing rate, the formal policy rate, stays at 4.5%.
The academic way to put it: with CPI at 5.09% and a 4.5% policy rate, Vietnam's real policy rate is slightly negative, and the central bank is choosing to keep it there. That only works while the dong is stable and inflation expectations stay anchored, which is why the government is also cutting electricity tariffs and fuel tax to shave headline prices.
What is happening to the dong?
It is steady. The State Bank's central rate was 25,644 dong per dollar on 29 October 2026, almost unchanged through the month (25,645 on 6 October). Banks sell dollars at around 26,000, roughly 1.5% above the central rate.
A stable dong is what gives the State Bank room to cut. If the dollar strengthens sharply, for example after a hawkish US Federal Reserve, that room shrinks quickly. For traders: USD/VND is a managed rate inside a band around the daily central rate, so it does not trade like a free-floating major. For visitors: cash, cards and ATM fees are covered in money in Vietnam for traders.
Will Vietnam hit its 2026 inflation target?
It will finish close to it, probably a little above. The ten-month average is 4.57%; the Finance Ministry's scenarios are 4.5% and 4.8%, the State Bank expects 4.5% to 5%, and international estimates span 4.2% to 5.5%.
Two measures took effect on 1 November: average retail electricity prices fell 2%, and the special consumption tax on petrol was cut to zero, worth about 1,500 to 1,700 dong a litre. Economist Vu Dinh Anh called these "largely short-term solutions". With growth near 10%, credit loosening and Tet demand coming in February, I expect monthly CPI prints to stay firm into early 2027. For 2027 the government proposes inflation of about 4.5% again (see the 2027 targets).
What does this mean for a visitor's costs?
Not much in dollar terms. Prices are rising about 5% in dong while the dong is stable against the dollar, so a hotel, a meal or a car costs a few percent more than last year, nothing more. Fuel-linked costs such as long drives have risen most.
For planning, the bigger price driver is the calendar: rooms around Tet (6 February 2027) and the December peak cost far more than any inflation number. See the best time to visit Vietnam.
FAQ
What is Vietnam's inflation rate in October 2026?
Consumer prices rose 5.09% year on year in October 2026 and 0.20% on the month, according to the National Statistics Office (released 3 November 2026). Average inflation for January to October was 4.57% and core inflation averaged 4.24%.
What is Vietnam's inflation target for 2026?
Around 4.5% on average. The Ministry of Finance has full-year scenarios of 4.5% and 4.8%, and the State Bank of Vietnam projects 4.5% to 5%.
What is the State Bank of Vietnam's policy rate?
The refinancing rate is 4.5% and the rediscount rate 3.0%. On 19 October 2026 the State Bank asked banks to cut deposit rates by at least 0.5 points for terms of six months or more and lending rates by 1.5 to 2 points for production and priority sectors.
What is driving inflation in Vietnam?
Housing, utilities and building materials (up 6.66% in ten months, adding 1.51 points to CPI), food and catering (up 4.61%, adding 1.65 points) and transport (up 6.98%, adding 0.7 points, with fuel up 13.09%).
What is the USD to VND exchange rate in late October 2026?
The State Bank's central rate was 25,644 dong per US dollar on 29 October 2026. Commercial banks sell dollars about 1.5% above the central rate, around 26,000 dong in late October.
The bottom line
Vietnam is running hot: about 9% growth, 5% inflation, and a central bank that is still easing. It is a deliberate bet that growth now is worth a little more inflation, supported by a stable dong and targeted tax cuts. The things to watch are the monthly CPI print (early each month), the dong's central rate, and whether banks actually pass the lending cuts through.
This is economic commentary, not investment or financial advice. We sell travel, not signals.
Sources: Viet Nam News, 3 Nov 2026; Bao Chinh Phu, 19 Oct 2026; State Bank central rate, 29 Oct 2026 (via vietnam.vn); National Statistics Office.