From our Vietnam economy series. Figures are preliminary estimates from the Ministry of Industry and Trade's Agency of Foreign Trade, reported by VNA on 29 October and 1 November 2026. Customs revises them later.
How much did Vietnam trade in the first ten months of 2026?
About $1.01 trillion in goods, up 32.3% year on year, with exports of about $499 billion (up 27.4%) and imports of roughly $511 billion. October alone was $122.2 billion, up 47.6% on October 2025.
| Measure | Jan–Oct 2026 | October 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Total goods trade | $1.01 trn · +32.3% | $122.2 bn · +47.6% |
| Exports | $499 bn · +27.4% | n/a |
| Imports (derived) | ≈ $511 bn | n/a |
| Balance | ≈ −$12.7 bn | ≈ +$6.8 bn |
| Manufactured goods, share of exports | 87.4% | n/a |
Imports are our subtraction (total minus exports), not a published figure. Nine-month deficit was $19.42 billion (VOV, 6 Oct); adding October's surplus gives about $12.6 billion, consistent with the $12.7 billion reported.
Why is there a trade deficit when exports are booming?
Because imports have grown even faster. Vietnam's economy is built on assembling imported parts into exports, and a year of record foreign investment and 9% growth pulls in machinery, components and materials before the new factories ship their output.
The gap is large. In the nine months to September, exports rose 24.5% but imports rose 36.7%, according to the National Assembly's Economic and Financial Committee, which also warned that exports still rely heavily on foreign-invested firms and that domestic supporting industries remain thin.
The ministry did not publish an import breakdown with these figures, so treat this as the standard reading rather than a proven one. It fits the other data: registered FDI of $50.36 billion in nine months (up 76.4%), manufacturing growth of 11.36%, and construction up 12.22% on public works. A deficit made of capital goods is a different animal from one made of consumer imports; the first tends to reverse as factories start exporting, and September and October may be the first sign of that.
It also matters for the dong. A goods surplus is one of Vietnam's main sources of dollars, alongside FDI and remittances. A year-to-date deficit removes part of that support, which makes the State Bank's rate cuts slightly riskier (more in inflation and interest rates).
Is Vietnam on track for its 2026 export target?
Yes, comfortably. The target was export growth of 15 to 16% for 2026, and exports are up 27.4% after ten months. November and December are usually strong months for electronics and holiday orders.
The ministry's longer plan for 2026 to 2030 is exports up 15 to 16% a year, imports up 12 to 13% a year, and a surplus of 3 to 6% of exports. 2026 so far is the opposite on imports, so expect official pressure to rebuild the surplus in 2027.
How dependent is Vietnam on a few markets?
Heavily, and the government wants that to change. Its 2030 targets say no single market should take more than 25% of exports and the top three should take under 55%. Today the United States and China are the two largest partners, with the EU, Korea and ASEAN next.
The ministry said ten-month trade grew with all five of those partners but did not publish country figures with this release. Two other 2030 goals are worth knowing because they shape policy: domestic firms should supply 28 to 30% of exports (most exports today come from foreign-invested factories), rising to 38 to 40% by 2045.
What does this mean for someone visiting for business?
It means Vietnam is in a build-out phase: new factories, ports and logistics hubs are taking delivery of equipment now and will be looking for buyers, suppliers and service partners over the next two to three years. That is when introductions are easiest.
- North: electronics around Bac Ninh and Hai Phong, one to two hours from Hanoi. See the Hanoi business trip guide.
- South: manufacturing and logistics in the Ho Chi Minh City industrial belt. See the Ho Chi Minh City business trip guide.
- Before you go: Vietnam business etiquette, and avoid the weeks around Tet (6 February 2027).
FAQ
How much did Vietnam trade in 2026?
About $1.01 trillion in goods from January to October 2026, up 32.3% year on year, the first time Vietnam has passed $1 trillion. Exports were about $499 billion, up 27.4%, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Does Vietnam have a trade surplus in 2026?
Not for the year so far. Vietnam had a goods trade deficit of about $12.7 billion for January to October 2026, after nine straight monthly deficits. September ($1.27 billion) and October (about $6.8 billion) were surplus months.
Why does Vietnam have a trade deficit in 2026?
Imports grew faster than exports for most of the year. The usual reading is that record foreign investment and fast growth pulled in machinery, components and materials for new factories and infrastructure, which tend to come before the exports they produce.
What is Vietnam's export target for 2026?
Export growth of 15 to 16%. With exports up 27.4% in ten months, Vietnam is well ahead of it.
What share of Vietnam's exports are manufactured goods?
Processed and manufactured goods made up 87.4% of exports in the first ten months of 2026.
The bottom line
Passing $1 trillion is a real milestone, but the more interesting number is the deficit: Vietnam is importing the tools of its next growth phase. If the September and October surpluses hold through year-end, the deficit will narrow sharply; if they don't, expect the dong and the State Bank's rate cuts to come under more scrutiny in early 2027.
This is economic commentary, not investment advice. We sell travel, not signals.
Sources: VietnamPlus (VNA), 29 Oct 2026; Xinhua, 1 Nov 2026; The Star, 2 Nov 2026; VietnamPlus, September surplus.