We publish a Vietnam economy brief like this every week, written in Vietnam and stamped with the time it was written. Longer pieces go deeper on each topic; links are in each section.
What were the five biggest economic stories this week?
October inflation at 5.09%, trade passing $1 trillion with a deficit, the State Bank's push for cheaper loans, a weaker stock market on foreign selling, and the run-up to the National Assembly's vote on 2027 targets.
1. Inflation stays above 5%
The National Statistics Office said this morning that consumer prices rose 0.20% in October and 5.09% on a year earlier (September: 5.08%). Petrol jumped 6.86% in the month; food fell slightly. The ten-month average is 4.57%, just over the 4.5% target. Electricity tariffs fell 2% and the special consumption tax on petrol went to zero on 1 November, which should take a little off November's print. Full analysis: inflation at 5.09% while rates are cut.
2. Trade crosses $1 trillion, with a deficit
The Ministry of Industry and Trade estimates goods trade of about $1.01 trillion for January to October (+32.3%) and exports of $499 billion (+27.4%). Imports grew faster, leaving a ten-month deficit of about $12.7 billion, but October posted a surplus of about $6.8 billion, the second in a row. Analysis: why the deficit, and what October changed.
3. Banks cut loan rates on instruction
Following the State Bank's 19 October meeting and an official letter on 21 October, banks are cutting deposit rates by at least 0.5 points on six-month-plus terms and lending rates by 1.5 to 2 points for production and priority sectors. Vietcombank, Agribank and BIDV have announced cuts. Credit grew 11.44% to mid-October against deposits at 11.22%.
4. Stocks slip as foreigners sell
The VN-Index closed Friday 30 October at 1,741.62 (−0.80%) and lost about 2.2% on Monday to around 1,704, near the lower part of its 52-week range of about 1,591 to 1,925. Foreign investors were net sellers in most October sessions; a run of 20 straight net-selling days on HOSE broke briefly on 21 October. The FTSE upgrade's next passive tranche is not until March 2027 (see FTSE emerging-market upgrade).
5. 10% again for 2027
The National Assembly debated the government's 2027 plan on 30 October: GDP growth of at least 10%, inflation about 4.5%, GDP per head $6,100. Its Economic and Financial Committee warned that growth foundations are not yet solid. The vote is set for Saturday 7 November. Analysis: the 2027 plan, the doubts and the vote.
What are the key numbers this week?
GDP growth 9.01% for nine months, inflation 5.09%, a policy rate of 4.5%, the dong near 25,644 per dollar, registered FDI of $50.36 billion and the VN-Index around 1,704. Each line shows the period it covers.
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | 9.95% (Q3) · 9.01% (9M) | Jan–Sep 2026 | NSO |
| CPI, y/y | 5.09% | Oct 2026 | NSO |
| CPI, average YTD | 4.57% | Jan–Oct 2026 | NSO |
| Refinancing rate | 4.5% | unchanged | SBV |
| USD/VND central rate | 25,644 | 29 Oct 2026 | SBV |
| Exports | $499 bn · +27.4% | Jan–Oct 2026 | MoIT |
| Trade balance | ≈ −$12.7 bn | Jan–Oct 2026 | MoIT |
| Registered FDI | $50.36 bn · +76.4% | Jan–Sep 2026 | NSO |
| International arrivals | 17.7 m · +14.5% | Jan–Sep 2026 | NSO |
| VN-Index | ≈ 1,704 | 2 Nov 2026 close | HOSE |
MoIT figures are preliminary. October FDI and arrivals are due shortly; they will appear in next week's brief.
What is on the calendar for the coming week?
The US midterm results land on Wednesday morning Vietnam time, the US jobs report comes out at 20:30 on Friday 6 November, and the National Assembly votes on the 2027 socio-economic plan on Saturday 7 November.
| When (Vietnam time) | Event | Why it matters here |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov, through Wed 4 Nov | US midterm elections and results | Dollar and risk mood; tariff policy outlook |
| This week | October FDI and international arrivals | Whether the FDI pace holds into Q4 |
| Fri 6 Nov, 20:30 | US non-farm payrolls (October) | Fed path, dollar, gold; see NFP time in Asia |
| Sat 7 Nov | National Assembly vote on 2027 plan | Confirms the 10%-plus target |
| Sat 14 Nov | End of the session's first phase | Laws passed so far, including real estate business |
US clocks went back on 1 November, so New York now opens at 20:00 in Vietnam and US data comes out at 20:30 (details in the New York open in Vietnam).
What is my take this week?
Vietnam is choosing growth over caution: rates are being cut with inflation above target and a trade deficit on the books. That works while the dong is calm. The number I am watching most is November CPI, due in early December.
The growth data are strong and broad: factories, construction, trade and tourism are all up. The open question is the cost of that speed, in prices and in the external balance, and that is what the Assembly's own economists are flagging too. If you are planning a visit, December to April is the driest season in the south, and the weeks around Tet (6 February 2027) are best avoided for meetings.
FAQ
What happened in Vietnam's economy in the week of 3 November 2026?
October CPI came in at 5.09% year on year, ten-month goods trade passed $1 trillion with a deficit of about $12.7 billion, banks began cutting lending rates after a State Bank order, the VN-Index fell to about 1,704, and the National Assembly prepared to vote on 7 November on a 10%-plus growth target for 2027.
Where is the VN-Index in early November 2026?
It closed at 1,741.62 on Friday 30 October 2026 and fell about 2.2% to around 1,704 on Monday 2 November, with foreign investors net sellers for most of October. Its 52-week range is about 1,591 to 1,925.
What time is the US jobs report in Vietnam this week?
Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:30 Vietnam time, an hour later than in summer because US clocks went back on 1 November.
How often do you publish Vietnam economy news?
A new brief at least once a week, with every article showing the date and time it was written and the period its data covers.
The bottom line
Strong growth, sticky inflation, easier money and a market that is taking a breather. Next week's brief will cover the Assembly's final 2027 targets, October FDI and arrivals, and how the dong took the US data.
Economic commentary for business travellers and traders, not investment advice. We sell travel, not signals.
Sources: Viet Nam News, 3 Nov; VietnamPlus, 29 Oct; Bao Chinh Phu, 19 Oct; market close, 30 Oct; Trading Economics, 2 Nov; Viet Nam News, 30 Oct.